This document discusses indicators for sustainable development of water resources in the Black Sea water management district of Bulgaria. It presents conceptual frameworks and models for analyzing driving forces like climate, population, and economic activity that put pressure on water resources and impact their state over time. Specific data is provided on temperature and precipitation trends, population and economic indicators, water usage by sector, and water losses for the district from 2000 to 2008. The document aims to identify pressures and their impacts to inform water management policies and responses.

1. Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski”, Faculty of Geology and
Geography, Department Regional and Political Geography
INDICATORS FOR SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE WATER
RESOURCES
(CASE STUDY: BLACK SEA
WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT)
Panka Babukova – PhD Student "Planning and Organization of the
Territorial Systems - Environmental Management"

2. Conceptual Framework
Driving Forces – Pressure – State – Impact -
Response
DRIVING RESPONSE
FORCES
IMPACT
PRESSURE STATE

3. “DRIVING FORCE – PRESSURE – STATE - RESPONSE” MODEL
DRIVING FORCES: RESPONSE:
CLIMATE: WATER MANAGEMENT POLICIES:
• Air temperature; • Ecological minimum of river runoff
• Precipitation • Consumption and supply management
ANTHROPOGENIC: • Water prices
• number, density and distribution • IWM
of the population;
• GDP and
GVA by economic sectors
IMPACT:
WATER STRESS
PRESSURE: STATE:
WATER ABSTRACTION
AMOUNT OF
by economic sectors WATER RESOURCES
WATER LOSSES
WATER SUPPLY REGIME

4. BLACK SEA WMD IN NUMBERS:
• Area: 20 760 km² (18.7% of Bulgarian territory);
• Population: 1 339 999 persons /2007/
(17.5% of Bulgarian population);
• GDP: 7 816 345 thousand BGN
(15.8% of Bulgarian GDP /2007/);
• GVA: 6 389 501 thousand BGN
(15.8% of Bulgarian GVA /2007/).
Source: Water Management Plan, Black Sea WMD

5. NATURAL DF: TEMPERATURE
Annual temperature anomaly – regional averaged data BSWMD
y = -0.0002x + 0.0846
Black sea water managment district 2
R = 5E-05
1.5
1.0
0.5
TC
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
1931
1936
1941
1946
1956
1961
1966
1971
1981
1986
1996
2001
1951
1976
1991
Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/

6. NATURAL DF: TEMPERATURE
Annual temperature anomaly – regional averaged data Varna
station
Varna y = 0.0082x - 0.1255
R2 = 0.0292
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
1961
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1979
1981
1985
1987
1993
2001
1963
1977
1983
1989
1991
1995
1997
1999
2003
2005
Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/

7. NATURAL DF: PRECIPITATION
Annual precipitation – deviation from climate
normal
Black sea water management district y = 0.081x + 99.529
2
R = 0.0052
175
150
P % of normals
125
100
75
50
25
1941
1961
1966
1971
1976
1986
1991
1996
1931
1936
1946
1951
1956
1981
2001
Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/

8. NATURAL DF: PRECIPITATION – RUN-OFF
The Chronological Fluctuation of the Run-off and Precipitation
Black sea - runoff
Black sea water management district
Varna - precip.
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
1931 1937 1943 1949 1955 1961 1967 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997 2003
Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/

9. NATURAL DF: CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Extreme years with high and low water-level
WMD WET YEARS DRY YEARS
Black 1955/56 1954/55 1966/67 1989/90 1948/49 1984/85
sea
R (106 m3) 3660.0 3606.9 3465.6 468.5 522.1 635.1
P % of 105 120 115 92 61 78
normal
Bulgaria 1962/63 1954/55 1955/56 1989/90 1993/94 1992/93
R (106 m3) 33590.7 32294.4 31194.2 5996.2 7085.5 7103.9
P % of 113 142 106 68 85 90
normal
Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/

10. MAIN WATER CONSUMERS
Total used water (without cooling water) 2003 - 2007: 935 345 thousand
m³
Sector Total used water Average per year Share
2003 - 2007
(thousand m³) (thousand m³)
Total used water 935 345 187 069 100 %
(without cooling water)
Industry 588 790 117 758 62.95 %
(without cooling)
Agriculture 35 485 7096.98 3.79 %
and forestry
(including fishery) *irrigation: 66.73%
Households 220 440 44 087.9 23.57 %
Service sector 90 631 18 126.2 9.69 %
*tourism: 34.85%
Source: Water Management Plan, Black Sea WMD

11. ANTHROPOGENIC DF:
2000 – 1299 thousand
people;
2008 – 1280.8 thousand
Number of Population people.
1305 y = -2,8217x + 1300,5
1300 2
R = 0,8393
1295
1290
1285 Thousand
1280 people
1275
1270 Linear
1265 (Thousand
1260 people)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
NATURAL INCREASE: 2009 - –1502 people;
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008

12. ANTHROPOGENIC DF:
2000 - -5072 persons;
2008 – 4199 persons.
Water Consumption, 2008
250
200
150
100 l/p/day
50
0
Bulgaria BSWMD Varna Bourgas Dobrich Shumen
District District District District
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008

13. ANTHROPOGENIC DF: GDP PER CAPITA
GDP IN THE BLACK SEA WMD
30000 2000 – 13 430 BGN per
25000 capita;
20000
15000 BGN Per Capita 2008 – 24 347 BGN per
10000 capita.
5000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008
GDP BY WATER ABSTRACTION
0,05
0,04
0,03
0,02 BGN/THOUSAND M³
0,01
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008

14. ANTHROPOGENIC DF:
GVA IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
2000 – 607 million BGN;
2008 – 457 million BGN
GVA IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
700 y = -7,7512x + 579,07
600 2
R = 0,1611
500
400
Milion Levs
300
200 Linear (Milion
Levs)
100
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008

15. ANTHROPOGENIC DF:
GVA IN THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
2000 – 1.293 million BGN;
2008 – 2.372 million BGN.
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008

16. ANTHROPOGENIC DF: TOURISTIC SECTOR
2000 – 812.1 thousand people;
2008 – 2061.3 thousand people.
2008 - 1637 accommodation
establishments
2000 – 5.580,9 nights;
2008 – 12.206 nights.
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008

17. PRESSURE: WATER SUPPLY
Used Water by the Public Water Supply
(Total: 71 378 thousand m3)
%
8 1,11
13,09 Domestic Sector
Industry
Service Sector
16,03 Tourism
66,77
Agriculture
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008

18. PRESSURE: WATER USED BY THE PUBLIC WATER
SUPPLY 2000 – 46 132 THOUSAND
M³;
2008 – 62 491 THOUSAND
WATER SUPPLIED TO DOMESTIC M³.
SECTOR (INCL. TOURISM)
70000
60000
50000
40000 THOUSAND M³
30000
20000
10000 Linear
0 y = 3099,2x + 35839
(THOUSAND
R M³)
2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 = 0,6991
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008

19. PRESSURE: DRINKING WATER CONSUMPTION IN
HOUSEHOLDS
2000 – 92.25 L/H/DAY;
DRINKING WATER CONSUMED BY 2002 – 82.7 L/H/DAY;
HOUSEHOLDS IN THE WMD 2007 – 98.5 L/H/DAY;
y = 0,8197x + 84,882 2008 – 92 L/H/DAY.
100 2
R = 0,2033
95
90
85 L/H/DAY
80
75
70 Linear
PROGNOSIS FOR WATER ABSTRACTION IN THE
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (L/H/DAY DOMESTIC SECTOR
)
136500,00
136000,00
135500,00
135000,00
134500,00
THOUSAND M³
134000,00
133500,00
133000,00
132500,00
132000,00
2008 2015
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008

20. PRESSURE: WATER USED BY THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
2000 – 16 841
THOUSAND M³;
2008 – 10 350
THOUSAND M³.
WATER SUPPLIED TO INDUSTRIES
18000 y = -554,32x + 14926
16000 2
R = 0,4944
14000
12000
10000 THOUSAND M³
8000
6000 Linear (
4000 THOUSAND M³)
2000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008

21. PRESSURE: WATER USED BY THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
2001 – 350
THOUSAND M³;
WATER SUPPLIED TO AGRICULTURE 2004 – 1194
THOUSAND M³;
1400 y = 73,619x + 388,71
2008 – 847
1200 2
R = 0,3769
THOUSAND M³.
1000
800
THOUSAND M³
600
400 Linear
(THOUSAND M³)
200
0
PROGNOSIS FOR WATER ABSTRACTION BY
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 AGRICULTURE
70000,00
60000,00
50000,00
40000,00
THOUSAND M³
30000,00
20000,00
10000,00
0,00
2008 2015
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008

22. PRESSURE: WATER USED BY THE TOURISTIC
SECTOR
2004 – 6493 THOUSAND M³;
2008 – 9997 THOUSAND M³.
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008

23. PRESSURE: WATER LOSSES
2001 – 60.6%;
2008 – 60.4%.
WATER LOSS FROM PUBLIC WATER
SUPPLY y = -0,1705x + 61,827
2
R = 0,2057
64
63
62
61
%
60
59
58
Li
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ne
ar
(%
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008 )

24. STATE: Water Resources of Bulgaria, by Run-off Basins and
Water Management Regions (1930/31 – 2002/3)
Water W % of water Cv M
resources 106 m3 re l/sec/km2
so
ur
ce
s
in
th
e
co
un
try
Bulgaria 19228.6 100 0.331 5.351
North Bulgaria 6953.2 36,2 0.355 4.035
South Bulgaria 12275.3 63,8 0.331 6.526
Black sea
water
Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water 12.5
management
2412.9 0.385 2.920
Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/

25. STATE: QUANTITY OF WATER RESOURCES WATER
ABSTRACTION
Water resources and water abstraction in Bulgaria
Water Years with: Water Total Water Rates of water
managemen resources Abstraction abstraction
t districts 106 m3 106 m3 (%)
Black Sea High water level 3660.0 374.0 10.2
Average water 2412.8 15.5
level
Low water level 468.5 79.8
Bulgaria High water level 33590.7 3341.0 9.9
Average water 19228.6 17.4
level
Low water level 5996.2 55.7
Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/

26. STATE: WATER SUPPLY RESTRICTION
2000 – 19.4%;
2008 – 1.6%.
POPULATION WITH WATER SUPPLY
RESTRICTION
35 31,7
30
25 19,45 18,225
20 15,275 %
15
10
5 1,6
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008

27. RESPONSE: WATER PRICES
2000 – 0.8 BGN;
2006 – 1.06 BGN.
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008

28. CONCLUSIONS AND PROBLEMS
• Discrepancy between the periods of major water
consumption and periods of high waters;
• Irrational use of the surface waters;
• Ineffective water consumption in households;
• Slow increase of water consumption in agriculture and
industry;
• The increase in tourism was not conformed with the
public water supply;
• Significant water losses from the transportation systems.

29. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!